The latest snowfall has delayed government agencies' opening by two hours on Friday. The Labor Department has said it will make every effort to put the data on its website at 8:30 a.m. or soon thereafter.
Economists are forecasting payrolls rose by 235,000 last month as the jobless rate declined to 5.6 percent, matching a more than six-year low. Here are a few more things to look for in the report:
1. Wage growth
The first payrolls report of the year showed the biggest gain in average hourly earnings since 2008, so economists will be eager to see whether February will provide more evidence that the highly anticipated pickup in wages is finally here for good. A recent rash of announcements from retail chains such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and TJX Cos. that they're boosting wages adds to the expectation that the rebound has arrived.January's 0.5 percent increase in earnings could be
difficult to replicate since it in part reflected a rebound from an unexpectedly abysmal 0.2 percent drop the prior month. The 2.2 percent year-over-year advance through January was the fastest since August, while still not representing a break-out from the norm in this expansion:
Oubina and his colleagues at RBC track a measure they call the "wage pie" that combines headcount, hours and hourly pay. It's at a high for the expansion and he's optimistic about the potential for paychecks to keep mounting in the months ahead. Solid growth for incomes will support "pretty impressive" consumer spending for the rest of the year, Oubina said.
2. Job gains
Payroll growth has been on a tear the past few months, with the 336,330 three-month average through January marking the best such stretch since the end of 1997. Sustaining that pace of gains is a tall order, which is why economists are forecasting a less-robust reading for February, according to the Bloomberg survey median.
3. Labor force flows
An army of job-seeking Americans — 1.05 million — entered the workforce in January, the biggest surge since January 2000, and 759,000 of them secured employment. The inflow pushed the labor force participation rate up to 62.9 percent from 62.7 percent, which matched the lowest in decades.The bar is high for a repeat of those kinds of numbers since the January figures also included new Census estimates on the size of the population.
"I remain quite optimistic that there's a large number to still re-join the labor market yet, and as long as we keep creating 200,000 a month, we're going to be finding those people jobs and there's going to be room for more people to come back in," said Tara Sinclair, an associate professor of economics at George Washington University and chief economist at Indeed, a search engine for online job postings.
4. Gauges of slack
Just a glance at Janet Yellen's dashboard of labor-market indicators will show why the Federal Reserve chair still is intently monitoring some underlying measures of health in the employment picture. Several measures of slack, including underemployment and long-term unemployment, have remained elevated even as overall hiring has improved.The so-called U-6 or "underemployment" rate edged up to 11.3 percent in January — still a blemish for the economy if you consider that the measure averaged 8.8 percent in the four years leading up to the last recession. This gauge includes workers such as those in part-time roles who would take full-time gigs.
Against the unemployment rate with which we are all familiar, called the U-3 rate, you can see why policy makers are eager for evidence that underemployment is receding more quickly:
"There's still a lot of slack," Sinclair said. "That's why wages have remained low."put the data on its website.
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