Economists upbeat about growth this year: NABE

John W. Schoen | @johnwschoen

The U.S. economy looks as if it's headed for another good year, according to the latest forecast from a group of business economists.

In its latest survey, the consensus of the National Association for Business Economics panelists peg the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) at 3.1 percent this year—easing to a 2.9 percent annual pace nest year. That compares with GDP growth of 2.4 percent last year.
"Healthier consumer spending, housing investment, and government spending growth are expected to make outsized contributions to the projected acceleration," NABE President John Silvia, chief economist of Wells Fargo.
That will help keep the job market humming—with payrolls expanding by about 250,000 new positions a month this year and roughly 216,000 next year. That should
drop the jobless rate to 5 percent by the second half of 2016, according to the consensus estimate from the group.
With the dollar surging and oil prices plunging, inflation is expected to remain below 1 percent, as measured by the consumer price index. But the group expects prices to begin rising at a quicker pace next year, as oil prices rebound and dollar's appreciation cools off.
The economists expect crude prices to recover a but this year—rising to $61 a barrel, based on the West Texas benchmark year-end projection—before edging up to $69 a barrel by the end of next year.
Lower gasoline prices are expected to boost consumers spending to a 3.3 percent rate this year.
The panel also expects strong growth in housing, business investment and industrial production to support the overall pick up in economic expansion this year
The group is less upbeat about the growth in hourly wages, which are expected to rise by 2.5 percent this year—a bit less than the 2.6 percent gain expected in December's survey. Wages are seen rising by 2.9 percent year, up from last year's hourly pay growth of 2.5 percent.
However, the panel sharply scaled back its forecast for corporate profits, an area Wall Street is growing extremely nervous about as the U.S. dollar surges. The latest survey sees profits growing just 4.7 percent this year, down from December's 6.7 percent forecast. Profits are expected to rise by 4.9 percent next year.