Pilita Clark
Global emissions of climate-warming carbon dioxide did not
rise last year for the first time in 40 years without the presence of an
economic crisis.
In a sign that efforts to tackle climate change may have been far more effective than thought, the International Energy Agency has found annual global emissions of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas, did not rise in 2014.
In a sign that efforts to tackle climate change may have been far more effective than thought, the International Energy Agency has found annual global emissions of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas, did not rise in 2014.
Philippe Huguen | AFP | Getty Images
Smoke from a factory in Haubourdin, northern France.
"This is a real surprise. We have never seen this before,"
said IEA chief economist, Fatih Birol, recently named as its next
executive director. Energy consumption shifts in China, the world's
largest carbon polluter, were among the reasons emissions stalled last
year, according to the body, which monitors energy trends.
There have only been three times in four decades when emissions fell
or stopped rising, the agency said: after the oil price shock and US recession in the early 1980s; in 1992 after the collapse of the former Soviet Union and in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
But last year, the global economy grew 3 per cent, while the amount of CO2 pumped out remained at the 2013 level of 32.3bn tonnes.
Read MoreIEA spots signs that oil decline 'tide will turn'
In each previous case, a fall in demand led to production slowdowns at the factories and power plants that are a leading cause of carbon dioxide emissions, which have been growing by an average 2.4 per cent a year over the last decade.
The IEA is to publish its findings in detail in a June 15 report advising governments what energy measures should be agreed at a Paris meeting in December where world leaders are due to finalise a global climate change pact.
"There could not be better news for Paris," Mr Birol, one of the most authoritative voices in the energy industry, told the Financial Times.
China has cut its use of coal, one of the biggest sources of carbon emissions, and installed more hydroelectricity, wind and solar power.
At the same time, electricity consumption, which had been growing at 10 per cent a year, has fallen to about 3-4 per cent as China imposes energy efficiency standards for industry, shuts older factories and shifts away from the heavy manufacturing that has powered its economic growth.
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Another reason for the halt in emissions is that wealthy OECD countries have started to "decouple" their economic growth from emissions increases, as they install more renewable energy plants and set stricter standards for everything from car fuel economy to home appliance energy use.
In the past five years, OECD countries' economies grew nearly 7 per cent while their emissions fell 4 per cent, the IEA has found.
But this has happened because of policy measures that governments must enhance in a Paris agreement if the world is to avoid a potentially dangerous 2C of warming from pre-industrial times, Mr Birol warned.
<>Otherwise, the halt in emissions could prove just "a temporary bright point in an otherwise alarming trend", he said.
This is especially important in fast-growing economies that are home to the 1.2bn people without access to electricity globally, including India. Many plan to build highly polluting coal-fired power plants, locking in the risk of rising emissions for decades.
Climate scientists say it will be much easier and cheaper to avoid 2C of warming if global carbon emissions are stabilised quickly. But because CO2 is such a long-lasting greenhouse gas, emissions must eventually be brought to near zero, an issue that is already dividing countries in the lead-up to the Paris talks.
There have only been three times in four decades when emissions fell
or stopped rising, the agency said: after the oil price shock and US recession in the early 1980s; in 1992 after the collapse of the former Soviet Union and in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
But last year, the global economy grew 3 per cent, while the amount of CO2 pumped out remained at the 2013 level of 32.3bn tonnes.
Read MoreIEA spots signs that oil decline 'tide will turn'
In each previous case, a fall in demand led to production slowdowns at the factories and power plants that are a leading cause of carbon dioxide emissions, which have been growing by an average 2.4 per cent a year over the last decade.
The IEA is to publish its findings in detail in a June 15 report advising governments what energy measures should be agreed at a Paris meeting in December where world leaders are due to finalise a global climate change pact.
"There could not be better news for Paris," Mr Birol, one of the most authoritative voices in the energy industry, told the Financial Times.
China has cut its use of coal, one of the biggest sources of carbon emissions, and installed more hydroelectricity, wind and solar power.
At the same time, electricity consumption, which had been growing at 10 per cent a year, has fallen to about 3-4 per cent as China imposes energy efficiency standards for industry, shuts older factories and shifts away from the heavy manufacturing that has powered its economic growth.
More from the FT:
Why stable CO2 emissions are vital
Climate change in depth
China must clean up its act, says minister
Another reason for the halt in emissions is that wealthy OECD countries have started to "decouple" their economic growth from emissions increases, as they install more renewable energy plants and set stricter standards for everything from car fuel economy to home appliance energy use.
In the past five years, OECD countries' economies grew nearly 7 per cent while their emissions fell 4 per cent, the IEA has found.
But this has happened because of policy measures that governments must enhance in a Paris agreement if the world is to avoid a potentially dangerous 2C of warming from pre-industrial times, Mr Birol warned.
<>Otherwise, the halt in emissions could prove just "a temporary bright point in an otherwise alarming trend", he said.
This is especially important in fast-growing economies that are home to the 1.2bn people without access to electricity globally, including India. Many plan to build highly polluting coal-fired power plants, locking in the risk of rising emissions for decades.
Climate scientists say it will be much easier and cheaper to avoid 2C of warming if global carbon emissions are stabilised quickly. But because CO2 is such a long-lasting greenhouse gas, emissions must eventually be brought to near zero, an issue that is already dividing countries in the lead-up to the Paris talks.
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