Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Markets are too pessimistic about growth: Analyst


<p>Markets too pessimistic? Try Europe: Pro</p> <p>Michael Ryan, UBS, and Barbara Reinhard, Credit Suisse, share their thoughts on risks to the markets, including political uncertainty in Greece and opportunity in the euro zone.</p>
Markets have become too pessimistic about growth—and that includes Europe, Credit Suisse strategist Barbara Reinhard said Wednesday.

"We have a positive view on Europe. We think it's consensus to dislike Europe at this point and that gives us a lot of comfort. It's also a relatively cheap market, and we think that equities are the place to be for 2015," the bank's chief investment strategist for private banking Americas division told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
While investors got weak inflation numbers Wednesday morning, some of the leading indicator data that came out in December point to a turn off of the bottom, she said.
Data on Wednesday confirmed that the euro zone has slipped into deflation. Prices in the euro zone dropped 0.2 percent year on year in December, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to launch a bond-buying program.
Read More Here's why European QE may not work

Europe has not quite hit escape velocity, but its growth dynamic is starting to improve, said Mike Ryan, UBS chief investment strategist.
That said, UBS still has a preference for equities within the United States, he said.
"We've seen a repricing in the equity market. You're not
likely to see the same gains you had last year. However, I still think we're going to have solid earnings growth this year. I think the Fed is going to take its time in terms of raising rates. It's going to be incredibly patient. And that usually creates a pretty good backdrop for equities," he said.
His biggest concern for 2015 is the possibility that geopolitical problems become more pervasive and gain critical mass, such as the possible exit of Greece from the European Union. Whenever geopolitical risk coincides with a monetary policy inflection point, the stakes rise and volatility increases, he said.
The notion that a Greek exit happens seamlessly and neatly is absurd, he said, but such an outcome does not represent the same threat it posed two years ago. That's because the European Central Bank has stepped up to do what is necessary to protect the euro, he said.
Read MoreGermany, France take calculated risk with 'Grexit' talk
He said a Greek exit could stir concern about other countries leaving the EU, but much of what is happening is unique to Greece and the same set of dynamics is not at play in Italy, Portugal and Spain.
"What we have to deal with is the problems as they arise within the euro zone and not start to think about what would it look like if we didn't have the euro, because we're going to have the euro," he said. "The notion that we can simply turn back the clock and simply go back to local currencies, I don't think that's an option."

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