A shipping container is loaded from a truck onto the Cap Campbell container ship at a... Read More
Overseas shipments climbed 12.9 percent from a year earlier, the finance ministry reported Monday, compared with the median estimate for a 11.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports advanced 1.9 percent, leaving a deficit of 660.7 billion yen ($5.6 billion).
Stronger exports should support an economy that contracted in 2014 after consumers cut spending following the tax rise. The Bank of Japan last week raised its forecast for growth in the fiscal year starting in April, with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda saying slumping oil prices will boost growth.
“The recovery in exports will pick up as the effects of a weaker yen sinks in,” said Kazuhiko Ogata, a Tokyo-based economist at Credit Agricole SA. “I don’t think much
manufacturing will come back to Japan, but some companies may boost domestic production and scale back overseas given the exchange rate.”
The yen weakened against the dollar immediately after the data was released, and then recovered to trade at 117.69 at 10:31 a.m. in Tokyo. The Topix (TPX) index of stocks fell 0.4 percent, after posting its first weekly advance in 2015, and as official projections showed Greece’s anti-austerity Syriza party may get close to winning a majority.
U.S. Growth
Exports to the U.S. rose almost 24 percent, while those to the EU climbed 6.8 percent and shipments to China were up 4.3 percent.“The weakening yen and strong economic growth in the U.S. are behind the recovery in exports,” said Minoru Nogimori, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “Exports will lead Japan’s economy, especially in the first half of this year before the Fed raises the policy rate.”
Overseas sales of cars, semiconductor components and steel were the largest contributors to the rise, with an increase in the value and volume of liquid natural gas imports the biggest factor in the rise in imports. The value of crude oil purchases from overseas dropped 22 percent as the price slumped.
Brent fell 48 percent last year amid a surplus of supply.
Record Deficit
An index for the volume of overseas shipments climbed to the highest since October 2014 while the weaker yen drove their value to the highest since Oct. 2008, just before exports plummeted due to the global recession.The annual trade deficit widened for a third straight year, rising to 12.8 trillion yen in 2014 from the previous year’s 11.5 trillion yen. That was the largest in comparable data back to 1979.
Japan’s trade balance turned negative in 2011 for the first time in more than three decades following a surge in fossil-fuel imports after the nation’s nuclear power plants were shut down.
“The trade balance will probably turn to a surplus in the April-June quarter if petroleum prices stay around the current level,” said Nomura’a Nogimori.
No comments:
Post a Comment