German Industrial Production Falls Amid Plunge in Energy Output

By Jana Randow

Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

A row of Mercedes-Benz AG S-Class Coupes, produced by Daimler AG, are seen as they move... Read More

German industrial production unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months in November as energy output (GRIPIMOM) slumped, signaling that the recovery in Europe’s largest economy remains vulnerable.
Output, adjusted for seasonal swings, fell 0.1 percent from October, when it climbed a revised 0.6 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted an increase of 0.3 percent, according to the median of 25 estimates. Production dropped 0.5% percent from a year earlier.
The Bundesbank has said the German economy managed only a “modest start” to the fourth quarter, after effectively stagnating in the prior six months. While surveys have shown that economic sentiment in the country is improving, the outlook is clouded by the euro area’s struggle with sluggish growth, falling prices and Greek political instability.
“The most important message is that we have to be a bit more patient,” said Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit MIB in Munich. “In terms of business
sentiment, there is more and more evidence that German companies already turned the corner. However, in line with economics 101, hard data typically lag behind such leading indicators.”
Energy output declined 2.4 percent in November from the previous month and construction fell 0.6 percent, today’s data show. Manufacturing rose 0.3 percent, driven by gains in output of investment and consumer goods.
“Industrial production has passed the trough” and “should have embarked on a moderate upward trend,” the Economy Ministry said in the statement.

Export Data

Exports fell 2.1 percent in November from October, when they declined 0.5 percent, separate data published today by the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden show. Imports rose 1.5 percent in November.
Analysts in Bloomberg’s monthly survey in December predicted in December that German economic growth accelerated to 0.2 percent last quarter. They forecast gross domestic product will rise 0.4 percent each in the first two quarters of the year. Unemployment dropped to a record-low 6.5 percent last month.
Germany’s Mercedes-Benz plans to make 2015 its fifth straight year of record annual sales on demand for new models such as the coupe version of the GLE sport-utility vehicle, Dieter Zetsche, chief executive officer of Mercedes parent company Daimler AG, said in an interview in Las Vegas.
Even so, factory orders fell for the first time in three months in November, reflecting below-average demand for big-ticket items, the Economy Ministry said yesterday. German inflation slowed to 0.1 percent in December, the weakest since 2009, amid slumping oil prices.
The European Central Bank is preparing a stimulus package for the euro area that is likely to include government-bond purchases for discussion at its Jan. 22 monetary-policy meeting. Consumer prices in the currency bloc dropped 0.2 percent in December from a year ago, the first decline in more than five years.