U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, center, meets with Iranian Foreign Minister... Read More
Secretary of State John Kerry met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi this morning, according to a State Department official who asked not to be named in line with diplomatic rules. He’ll then sit down with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, with whom he discussed late
yesterday whether to extend the deadline. The U.S. will join a meeting of its P5+1 partners -- China, France, Germany, Russia and the U.K. -- later in the day.
Diplomatic recognition that time might run out before sides can complete a comprehensive deal by the end of today signals the severity of disagreements over key issues. An extension would present both practical and political problems, though both sides said it’s preferable to a breakdown in the diplomacy, which could then lead to military conflict over Iran’s nuclear activities.
Still, there were signs that diplomats had not given up on reaching a less ambitious agreement in a bid to resolve the 11-year standoff over suspicions that Iran secretly aspires to gain the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Wang joined the talks for the first time since the P5+1 group sealed its accord in November 2013 and immediately met separately with Kerry and Zarif after he arrived in Vienna.
Iranian men hold placards during a demonstration outside the Tehran Research Reactor in... Read More
Russia Involved
“We hope that in light of the latest developments we will push forward these negotiations so that a deal that is mutually beneficial can be reached,” Wang’s spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said today at a Beijing briefing. “All parties are stepping up their negotiations.”That effort may include the involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who plans to call Iranian President Hassan Rouhani today, according to the Russian state-run Tass news agency. Russia “remains at our side” in the nuclear talks, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in an interview on ARD German television yesterday.
“We are still far apart on many points” and “I can’t say” whether an agreement will result, Steinmeier said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is solely for energy and industrial uses, has seen its economy squeezed and oil output slashed under sanctions. The year-old interim accord, aimed at ending Iran’s isolation from the U.S. and its allies by restricting its nuclear ambitions, expires at midnight.
Previous Extension
The risk facing negotiators is that an extension or a partial deal could come under attack from politicians in the U.S. and Iran opposed to the necessary compromises for a deal.An extension may run from a few days -- at least through the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 27 -- to several months. It would be the second extension of the interim accord reached in Geneva one year ago that temporarily curtailed some Iranian nuclear activities in return for limited sanctions relief.
“The good news is that the interim deal that we entered into has definitely stopped Iran’s nuclear program from advancing, and in some cases has actually rolled back some of the things that they were doing,” President Barack Obama said in an interview broadcast yesterday on ABC’s “This Week.”
“Our goal has consistently been to shut off a whole bunch of different avenues whereby Iran might get a nuclear weapon, and at the same time make sure that the structure of sanctions are rolled back step for step as Iran is doing what it’s supposed to do,” Obama said. “I think Iran would love to see the sanctions end immediately, and then to still have some avenues that might not be completely closed, and we can’t do that.”
Lawmakers Critical
A months-long extension may not hold though, as critics in both the U.S. and Iran oppose it. U.S. lawmakers have indicated they favor more sanctions as a way to pressure Iran for concessions. Obama administration officials have warned that such a move would cause the interim agreement to collapse and free Iran to ramp up its nuclear activities, which could lead to military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites by Israel or the U.S.A pro-Israel group, the Israel Project, was quick to state its opposition to an extension. “The concern is that the Iranians are looking to negotiate indefinitely because they think time is on their side,” Omri Ceren, senior adviser for strategy at the Washington-based group, said in an e-mail.
Rouhani may have his own problems with an extension. On the one hand he promised Iranians to free the country from international sanctions. On the other, his ability to make nuclear concessions is constrained by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Supreme Leader
“I suspect President Rouhani would like to seize that opportunity, but in the end he’s going to have to deal with his politics at home, and he’s not the ultimate decider inside of Iran; the Supreme Leader is,” Obama said.Kerry met twice yesterday with Zarif -- once on his own, once with European Union envoy Catherine Ashton. Kerry is also staying in touch with other nations which have a stake in the outcome.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal flew to Vienna yesterday for a brief airport meeting with Kerry, their second meeting in a week. Prince Saud, one of the staunchest critics of Iran’s nuclear program, also met this week with Lavrov in Moscow, where the two men agreed to cooperate to halt sliding oil prices.
Kerry also spoke yesterday with Gulf foreign ministers and called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“We are anxiously monitoring developments in these talks,” Netanyahu said at his weekly cabinet meeting.
Military Threat
Israel and the U.S. haven’t ruled out the possibility of military action to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.Iran’s capacity to produce fissile material -- highly enriched uranium and plutonium -- is one of the main points of disagreement, four diplomats told Bloomberg News when talks began last week. The speed at which sanctions are rolled back under a possible deal is another sticking point, they said.
A third issue -- how Iran will address suspicions revolving around its past nuclear work -- isn’t complicating talks, a Western diplomat said. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said last week the body is ready to “accelerate” its investigation of those allegations. The IAEA’s 35-member board of governors, led by the world powers negotiating with Iran, is ultimately responsible for concluding if Iran has sufficiently cooperated.
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