Trader Brings NFL Algorithms Back to Defend Betting Title

By Mason Levinson  

Photographer: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers gets ready to pass against the Chicago Bears at... Read More

By day, David Frohardt-Lane puts his math skills to use as an algorithmic trader for 3Red Group in Chicago. Away from work, he uses them to cash in on the National Football League.
Frohardt-Lane is seeking a repeat title in the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook’s SuperContest, a season-long NFL betting competition that drew about 1,200 entrants this season. The winner earns more than $600,000, and the total prize pool approaches $2 million. The tournament begins with the NFL opener tonight, when the Green Bay Packers visit the champion Seattle Seahawks.
“I enjoy my job quite a bit, but nothing compares to an unexpected breakaway touchdown just when you’ve given up on a game,” Frohardt-Lane said in a
telephone interview. “For that rush, nothing compares to sports gambling.”
Formerly a baseball handicapper, 37-year-old Frohardt-Lane gave it up in 2003, hampered by U.S. gambling regulations and the time constraints of trying to focus on a career in finance. With the NFL schedule less taxing than Major League Baseball’s, he’s since built a statistical model that -- along with a bit of luck -- helped him win $557,850 in the SuperContest last season.
SuperContest competitors, ranging from professional handicappers, known as “sharps,” to amateurs, or “squares,” pay $1,500 to enter, making five picks against the point spread for each of the 17 NFL weeks. Gamblers are awarded points for correct selections, and the bettor with the most at the end of the season wins. Now in its 27th year, it will be its fourth straight with a record number of contestants. This year there is more than triple the number there were in 2010.

Photographer: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Cornerback Richard Sherman of the Seattle Seahawks.

“That is something we never thought would be possible just a couple years ago,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at the LVH SuperBook.

Proxy Pickers

Weekly picks may be made through a proxy, and the contest pays the top 30 finishers.
“It’s by far the biggest prize pool and it’s renowned as the handicapping championship,” said RJ Bell, founder of Las Vegas-based handicapping information website Pregame.com.
With wins worth one point and ties one-half point, Frohardt-Lane’s winning entry went 55-26-4 -- a 67.9 percent success rate -- for 57 points. He followed his final play of the year while attending his brother-in-law’s wedding, and won the title by a half-point when San Francisco kicker Phil Dawson’s game-ending 40-yard field goal gave the 49ers a win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Source: David Frohardt-Lane

Formerly a baseball handicapper, 37-year-old David Frohardt-Lane gave it up in 2003,... Read More

“I was refreshing my iPhone every 30 seconds for three hours,” Frohardt-Lane said. “Even as things were going my way, I was getting sicker and sicker all day long, imagining all these worst-case scenarios.”

Previous Win

The victory wasn’t Frohardt-Lane’s first in an NFL contest. He won $75,000 in an event hosted by Cantor Gaming. He donated half of his SuperContest winnings to GiveWell, a non-profit that evaluates other charities.
With a master’s degree in statistics from the University of Chicago, Frohardt-Lane has played in eight NFL contests in the past four years, posting a 58.5 win percentage. He says his model is good enough to pick 54 percent winners in the long run; not as strong as his baseball model or as complete as those used by some of his SuperContest rivals. For example, other NFL models, whose creators have more time to devote to them, are better at analyzing how good a team is entering a season, he said.
“For a professional bettor, hitting 54 or 55 percent is excellent,” Bell said.
For those who prefer to wager on who will win the Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 1, the Seahawks are favored at LVH, with 9-2 odds. The Denver Broncos, who lost 43-8 to Seattle in February’s title game, are second-favorites at 5-1, meaning a successful $100 bet would net $500. In-person registration for the season-long contest will be open until Saturday.

Sports Consultant

Frohardt-Lane has been successful enough as a sports gambler to be hired as a consultant to a professional U.S. sports franchise, helping to evaluate potential draft picks. Agreeing to the team’s request not to disclose its identity, he said it’s been tougher to contribute than he had expected because of the statistical analysis that was already in place.
“I find myself contributing at the margins,” Frohardt-Lane said. “Five or 10 years ago the gambling world was so far ahead of what the teams are doing. I don’t know if that’s the case anymore.”
Frohardt-Lane’s gambling success also has brought him a hint of fame, as strangers notice his arrival when he visits the SuperBook. His celebrity, however, ends there.
“I don’t think I even get recognized in the casino area,” he said.