Ruble Weakens to Record as Sanctions Loom: Russia Reality Check

By David Wilson  

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Markets are reacting in real time to tension in Ukraine following Russia’s March incursion into Crimea and subsequent annexation of the Black Sea peninsula.
The ruble depreciated 0.3 percent to 37.2125 per dollar, bringing its decline to 3.6 percent since Feb. 28, the day before President Vladimir Putin’s intervention. The Micex Index added 0.2 percent to 1,403.35 by 4:45 p.m. in Moscow, trimming its drop to 2.9 percent in the period. The yield on local-currency bonds due February 2027, which has increased 141 basis points since the incursion, slipped two basis points to 9.77 percent.
The chart shows the performance of stocks, bonds
and the ruble, along with indicators of Russian investment risk. The top panel displays the value of the Micex Index of 50 stocks, government debt in the Bloomberg Russia Local Sovereign Bond Index, and the ruble relative to the dollar.
Credit-default swap rates on Russian bonds due in five years appear in the bottom panel. The yield gap between Russian debt and U.S. Treasuries and the one-month implied volatility of the ruble are also tracked.