JPMorgan Sees ‘Lehman Moment’ for Russia If Ukraine Deteriorates

By Jason Corcoran Aug 29, 2014 1:38 PM GMT+0100

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Russia’s equity markets may face a “Lehman moment” if the Ukraine conflict deteriorates further, according to Alexander Kantarovich, head of research for JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Moscow.
“With the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock,” Kantarovich wrote in an e-mailed report today. “Revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50 percent from an index perspective.”
Russia’s ruble-denominated Micex Index has fallen 6.6 percent this year. The stock gauge posted the worst monthly drop in July since 2012 as the U.S. and the European Union escalated sanctions targeting Russia’s $2 trillion economy after the downing of a passenger jet on July 17 over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian insurgents.