Oman Sultan’s Health Casts Pall on State Bridging U.S.-Iran Gap

By Glen Carey

Photographer: Behrouz Mehri/AFP via Getty Images

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, and Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said listen to... Read More

As Oman celebrated its national day, the four-month absence of Sultan Qaboos bin Said from the country for medical tests was raising questions about political succession in a vital U.S. ally on the Arabian peninsula.
Details of Qaboos’ health haven’t been disclosed, with the Royal Court announcing only that the 74-year-old departed in July for Germany for unspecified checks. In an interview on state television two weeks ago, Qaboos told the four million people living in Oman he’d be unable to return in time for yesterday’s celebrations to mark the state’s independence, which also fell on his birthday.
Unlike the monarchies ruling Oman’s Persian Gulf neighbors, there is
no declared heir to the throne in Muscat as Qaboos isn’t married and has no children or brothers. While Oman may be small, it’s strategically placed next to some of the world’s most important energy corridors. And, uniquely in the region, it has close ties both with the U.S. and European nations as well as Shiite power Iran.
“There hasn’t been a so-called No. 2 man in the regime so there is much uncertainty about who would become the next sultan,” said Giorgio Cafiero, the director of research at Gulf State Analytics. The next leader isn’t “going to realign Oman on the international stage. However, if Oman is destabilized we can expect authorities to channel more energy and resources toward dealing with the domestic crisis,” he said.

‘Significant Role’

Underscoring Oman’s bridge-building role at a time of escalating Sunni-Shiite tension in the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met in Muscat ahead of this week’s last-ditch efforts to secure an accord on Iran’s nuclear program before a Nov. 24 deadline. Kerry and Oman’s foreign minister were scheduled to meet in London yesterday.
“Qaboos has played a significant role through his ability to be a moderate on a host of issues,” Theodore Karasik, a senior analyst with Risk Insurance Management in Dubai, said in response to e-mailed questions. “The sultan acted as an intermediary between Iran and the West. This channel has served as a pathway toward hopefully resolving the nuclear energy standoff between Tehran and Washington.”
His nation is bordered by Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil supplier, the United Arab Emirates and, to the west, Yemen, where fighting between Shiite militants and al-Qaeda has destabilized the government.
Before Qaboos addressed Omanis on Nov. 5, there was speculation that he was terminally ill or had even died, according to Cafiero, who’s based in Washington.

‘Very Frail’

The video “was released in the context of rumors he had passed away,” Cafiero said. It “did away with those rumors, though at the same time he looked very frail.”
Qaboos read from a written speech while sitting in a gilded chair. Looking drawn, he wore what appeared to be a woolen hat instead of his usual colorful turban, while his white beard was neatly trimmed.
“The national day has come at the time when I am outside my beloved country for reasons you know about,” Qaboos said. “The results have been positive. I have to follow up a medical program during the upcoming period.”
Oman’s constitution requires the ruling family to choose a successor within three days of the throne falling vacant.
Should it fail to do so, a successor designated by Qaboos in a letter to the family council will be installed in the job by senior officials, the charter says.

First Protests

When Qaboos came to power in 1970 by overthrowing his father, Said bin Taimur, in a palace coup backed by former colonial power Britain, he suppressed a rebellion with support from the Shah of Iran and unified the country’s coastal and tribal interior. Qaboos used energy wealth to increase spending on health, education and welfare for his citizens.
Oman pumped about 940,000 barrels of crude oil a day last year, according to BP Plc, with Royal Dutch Shell Plc among the main producers. The $82 billion economy is forecast to grow about 4 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Qaboos enacted reforms, granting women the right to vote and stand for public office in 1994, unprecedented at the time in the Gulf region, and introducing a written constitution. Still, the sultan has done little to change Oman’s political system and he rules by royal decree.
In 2011, Oman experienced its first protests in decades as part of the wave of unrest in the Arab world. Demonstrators called for political openness and economic reforms, and at least two people were killed in clashes with security forces while dozens were detained.

Yemen Concerns

In response, Qaboos reshuffled his cabinet, gave authority to a public investigator to investigate corruption and created tens of thousands of public-sector jobs. While activists say the changes were cosmetic, Oman escaped the persistent unrest suffered by Yemen or fellow GCC member Bahrain.
“Qaboos has used a carrot-and-stick approach to political change at home, clamping down on protests in the streets and via social media but promising jobs and benefits,” Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute, wrote on Nov. 7. “Oman is comparatively progressive, having an elected consultative assembly.”
With Qaboos ailing in Germany, there “is some concern about the future of the country in terms of regional aspirations, as well as what Yemen-based terrorists may see as an opportunity to destabilize the southern part of the country,” Karasik, the analyst, said.