Prabowo Subianto, former Indonesia's special forces army commander.
Prabowo’s coalition of seven parties has confounded expectations by holding together after his July election defeat, supported by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat party. With a majority in parliament, his lawmakers have passed rules that scrap direct regional elections, weaken the influence of President-elect Joko Widodo’s party and limit the ability of the anti-graft body to pursue legislators.
The moves underscore the challenge for Widodo, known as Jokowi, even before he takes office, to navigate a parliament and an oligarchy that may not favor his efforts to cut corruption and improve tax collection to boost an economy growing at its slowest pace since 2009. Prabowo’s parties will seek to set the agenda once Jokowi is sworn in this month, even as their abolition of direct local elections faces a
probable court challenge and public backlash.
“It could be a bad precedent for the country’s political stability and legal certainty,” said David Sumual, an economist in Jakarta at PT Bank Central Asia. This scenario “could be a prevailing story over and over again.”
Joko Widodo, Indonesia's president-elect.
Road Blocks
Prabowo has kept his alliance together by touting the potential to exert influence through parliament, after initial leadership rifts emerged in some parties as officials considered joining Jokowi.With Prabowo’s coalition holding a near two-thirds majority in a new parliament inaugurated today, Jokowi, who is due to announce his cabinet this month, may have to dangle ministerial seats to lure some opposition parties, or face an antagonistic legislature that markets will see as a bigger risk, said Wellian Wiranto, a Singapore-based economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
“The same bunch of people who voted in this law in the outgoing parliament would still command a majority in the incoming parliament,” said Wiranto. “It’s a coalition that has proven itself quite ready to erect road blocks that will ensure a tricky path for Jokowi’s presidency.”
Presidential System
Yudhoyono, the country’s first directly elected president, said yesterday he plans to propose an emergency regulation to keep direct regional elections. That would need parliamentary approval and does not trump the existing law, said Achmad Sukarsono, an associate fellow at Jakarta-based research institute The Habibie Center.“This is only a face-saving move by SBY,” Sukarsono said, referring to Yudhoyono by his initials.
Jokowi said he wasn’t afraid of complications with parliament, as he had operated as governor of Jakarta and mayor in the Javan city of Solo as part of minority local coalitions.
“Our republic is presidential, and I’m not very worried about parliament,” Jokowi told reporters on Sept. 29, adding he was open to others joining the coalition of his Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P.
Election Promise
Jokowi has backtracked on a pre-election promise to have a cabinet of technocrats, announcing last month that half his ministerial team would be professionals and the rest from political parties. That leaves open the prospect of offering seats to party figures from within Prabowo’s coalition.Prabowo, who led Indonesia’s special forces unit Kopassus under former dictator Suharto, was accused of using a Red Cross-marked helicopter to rescue foreign scientists held hostage by Papuan rebels, killing villagers in East Timor and sending Kopassus members to kidnap pro-democracy activists. The latter saw him fired from his post in 1998 on the recommendation of a panel of officers, including Yudhoyono.
In more recent times he has recast himself as a successful businessman and cattle farmer who spends time with the locals near his ranch an hour’s drive from Jakarta.
Prabowo is now implementing political guerrilla tactics, said Glen Gardiner, a partner at Jakarta-based Concord Consulting, which advises companies on Indonesia security risks.
Prabowo Strategy
“His personal political strategy certainly may be colored by his previous professional background as a military commander and the kind of thing special forces would seek to do against an opponent,” said Gardiner, who spent 20 years in the Australian military. “Prabowo is a political opportunist that has survived.”Prabowo’s coalition is satisfied with its strategy, his brother and economic adviser Hashim Djojohadikusumo said on Sept. 29. The constitutional court that day rejected a PDI-P appeal to overturn a law that means it will not automatically get to choose the speaker in the parliament, known as the DPR.
“We think that this has certainly weakened Joko Widodo’s power to operate, especially as not only will the speaker of the DPR be our nominee but also all 15 House committee chairmen and vice-chairmen will be named by our coalition,” Djojohadikusumo told Bloomberg News. “PDI-P and allies will be denied all committee leadership positions.”
The parliament committees formulate and approve bills.
Vultures Circle
Prabowo’s military training has taught him that strategy is important, said Sukarsono. His tactics could force Jokowi’s agenda to become more nationalistic, such as policies that restrict foreign investment, and make it harder to raise fuel prices, he said.“He cannot take an unpopular policy at the start of his presidency when the vultures are hovering,” he said. “Prabowo is in control politically.”
Jokowi’s pledge to raise subsidized fuel prices could create inflation, hurt growth and offer his opponents an opportunity to attack him on the economy. His to-do list also includes raising funds by increasing tax collection, and reducing poverty. He will need parliament to approve future budget plans, pass laws, and sign off on appointments to institutions such as the anti-graft agency and central bank.
The ultimate mission of Prabowo, who questioned if the country’s political system fitted its culture during the election campaign, may be to try to expand the removal of people’s direct voting rights to the presidency, reversing democracy, said Kevin O’Rourke, author of “Reformasi: The Struggle for Power in Post-Soeharto Indonesia.”
“An opportunity now exists for Widodo to hammer the opposition publicly for these maneuvers, especially the deeply unpopular revocation of voting rights,” said O’Rourke. “But such aggressiveness may not be his forte.”
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